A
CRITIQUE OF THE IMF'S ROLE & POLICY CONDITIONALITY
By Martin Khor
Chapter
1
INTRODUCTION
The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) is facing a crisis of legitimacy. There
is a crisis of legitimacy of the IMF with the public; problems of the
IMF's credibility (including regarding appropriateness of its policies)
in relation to many recipient countries; erosion of confidence in the
IMF within the establishment (policy making, academic, media) of major
shareholder countries; and also debate on IMF policy and strategy within
the IMF staff themselves.
The
IMF management would like recipient countries to "own" the policy
conditionalities much more than they have done. But genuine ownership
can only be derived if the countries themselves participate in the making
of the policies; and this is generally not the case as the policies are
usually imposed by the IMF, often against the wishes of the governments
or people.
Still,
the policies would be more acceptable if they work. But generally they
have not worked. Instead of recovery, growth and getting out of debt,
many recipient countries have experienced stagnation or worse, and many
are still trapped in debt.
Thus,
more "country ownership" of IMF programmes does not simply mean
improving the methods of getting countries to really accept and internalise
IMF policies which, it is assumed, are good though tough. It is not a
communications or public relations task. Ownership can or should be increased
only if there is genuine participation by the government and people of
recipient countries; and only if the content of conditionality (i.e.,
the policies) are appropriate and bring about good outcomes.
Thus,
the key issues are the democratic (or rather non-democratic and non-participatory)
process of IMF policy-making, and the appropriateness (or rather inappropriateness)
of the IMF policies. Unless these issues are resolved, no amount of persuasion
or arm-twisting (ultimatums such as "convince us beforehand that
you are a believer or we won't agree to giving you a loan") will
bring about genuine ownership.
The
issues of non-participation and inappropriate policies are not academic
but of life and death dimensions. Like many others in this room, I lived
through the financial crisis, in this case in Asia. I closely followed
the events, policy debates and policies in the different affected countries,
saw the effects of the market practices and the IMF-led policies, the
social and political upheavals, the traumatic financial crash and economic
downturn, the devastating effect on the lives of millions of people and
on the viability of thousands of local firms, big and small.
Due
to the evidence of recent events, there is a crisis also in development
thinking and the development paradigm, and a major change is under way.
In the past there was a bias or blind faith in predominantly relying on
the state for development. Then, there was a swing to the other extreme
of having total reliance and blind faith in the private sector and on
globalisation (rapid opening up to international finance and trade). Now
the pendulum is swinging back.
The
emerging view is that openness can have good or bad effects, depending
on the specific condition and stage of development a country is in, for
example, whether the local firms and banks are prepared for external competition,
whether there are regulations or knowledge on managing and utilising foreign
loans so that they can be repaid, whether there is reciprocal benefits
from opening up, whether there are opportunities for increasing exports
or if the capacity to produce and market for export has been built up,
and what are the balance of payments effects of opening up given the conditions
the country finds itself in.
Although
if conditions are right there can be many benefits from opening up, there
are also great risks and costs to be borne if the conditions are not right.
For many countries, the conditions are not or may not be right, at least
not yet. If they nevertheless open up, they may suffer the risks and the
costs.
Thus,
the balance, degree, timing, sequence of liberalisation must be tailored
to each country. Though it may become the new wisdom in rhetoric, this
principle has not yet been translated into policy by international agencies
like the IMF and WTO, nor into national policy of most developing countries.
Many countries are unable to do so, even if they want to, due to conditionality
or binding rules.
Many,
if not most, developing countries are neither growing nor developing.
The situation is bleak for many. Business as usual cannot be the response,
as it has generally failed. The issue of conditionality and ownership
should be viewed in a broad perspective, and this includes looking critically
not only at the roads taken by the IMF but also at the roads not taken.
Chapter
2
THE
IMF´S ORIGINAL MISSION AND THE DEVIATION
The
raison d´etre of the IMF at its creation and in the era of the Bretton
Woods system is to ensure global financial stability. This arose from
the recognition that left to itself the financial institutions, markets
and players, can become a too-powerful force with the potential of destabilising
the financial system itself as well as undermining the real economy.
The
IMF's implicit mission included taming and regulating global and national
finance so that finance would serve the real sector objectives of growth
of output, income and employment.
The
original Post WW2 framework supported this function. It included a system
predominated by fixed exchange rates (which could be adjusted with IMF
assistance when needed by objective conditions), BOP adjustment through
country-IMF discussion when needed, limited crossborder financial flows,
and the normality of national capital controls.
Policy
was influenced by an understanding of the need for caution on the potential
for instability, volatility and harm to the real economy that can be caused
by unregulated finance and by speculative activity. .
This
regulatory system and the period of relative financial stability ended
with the 1972 Smithsonian Agreement. Floating replaced fixed exchange
rates, financial deregulation and liberalisation took off in the OECD
countries, new financial instruments developed, there has been a massive
explosion in crossborder short term capital flows and in speculative financial
activity.
There
has also been the spread of capital liberalisation to developing countries,
to which advice from developed countries and from the IMF contributed.
These developments underlie the frequent occurrence of financial crises.
The
failure of the IMF and other international financial agencies to prevent
such crises should be recognised as one of its major flaws, and this should
be rectified. Indeed, the failure of the IMF in preventing the global
financial system from going down the road of such rapid deregulation and
liberalisation (with the consequences of currency instability, volatility
of capital flows and financial speculation), and instead presiding over
this road that was taken, is a major mistake. It also goes against the
original role of the IMF to establish and maintain a stable financial
order.
Chapter
3
THE
ROAD THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN
Crisis
prevention measures in a new framework for financial stability
There
needs to be a backtracking to the crossroads and take a new turning which
is more true to the IMF's original mission of establishing financial stability.
That is the road of crisis prevention through establishment of greater
stability through better understanding and regulation of capital flows
and capital markets; and a more stable system of exchange rates (including
among the major reserve currencies, and in the currencies of developing
countries).
There
is need to understand capital markets and the role and methods of players
like highly leveraged institutions (for example hedge funds) which are
now non-transparent and unaccountable but have major impact on global
and national finance and real economy.
There
is need especially to curb manipulative financial activity. Recently the
Fund's Managing Director announced he had encouraged his staff to get
knowledge of how capital markets work. This is a statement to be welcomed.
It also implies the Fund's previous and current lack of knowledge of capital
markets. It is a serious blind spot for the world's premier international
financial institution to have. How could the Fund have given good advice
on handling the recent financial crises arising from the workings of the
capital markets when its knowledge of these markets was limited?
There
is need to understand the behaviour and potential and real effects of
various kinds of capital flows to developing countries -- including credit
(to the public and private sectors), portfolio investment, foreign direct
investment (and its varieties, such as mergers and acquisitions, Greenfield
investment, and FDI that produces for the domestic or the foreign market).
There
is need to look at inflows and outflows arising from each, including the
potential for volatility of each and the effects, especially on reserves
and the balance-of-payments.
What
are the implications for policy and what guidelines should be given?
For example, when should (or should not) a government or company borrow
in foreign currency? Regulations and guidelines are needed because the
market lacks a mechanism that can ensure appropriate outcomes.
One
guideline that is most relevant could be that local companies should be
allowed to borrow in foreign currency only if (and to the extent) the
loan is utilised for projects that earn foreign exchange to repay the
debt. This was a regulation that the Malaysian Central Bank had maintained,
and it had helped Malaysia avoid falling into the kind of debt trap that
Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea had got into, when the private sector
borrowed heavily in foreign currency denominated loans.
The
potential for devastating effects of short-term capital flows should be
recognised and acted on, to prevent developing countries from the dangers
of falling into debt traps. The IMF must recognise this and have an action
plan (or at least be part of a coordinated action plan) that:
(i)
regulates global capital flows, through international regulations or through
currency transaction taxes;
(ii)
establishes surveillance mechanisms and disciplines on countries that
are major sources of credit so that the authorities in these countries
monitor and regulate the behaviour and flows emanating from their capital
markets and institutional sources of funds;
(iii)
provides warnings for developing countries of the potential hazards of
accepting different types of capital inflows and provides guidelines on
the judicious and careful use of the various kinds of funds ;
(iv)
educates members and the public on how capital markets work and establishes
surveillance and accountability mechanisms to guide and regulate the workings
of the markets;
(v)
appreciates and advises countries on the functions and selective uses
of capital controls at national level, and helps them establish the capacity
to introduce or maintain such controls;
(vi)
identifies and curbs the use and abuse of financial instruments and methods
that manipulate prices, currencies and markets, and prevents the development
of new manipulative or destabilising instruments and methods;
(vii)
stabilises exchange rates at international and national levels, which
could include mechanisms to stabilise the three major currencies, and
measures that can provide more stability and more accurate pricing of
currencies of developing countries;
(viii)
provides sufficient liquidity and credit to developing countries to finance
development.
The
prevention of crises through a more stable global financial order is more
beneficial and cost effective than allowing the continuation of a fundamentally
unstable and crisis-prone system which would then throw up the need of
frequent bail-outs with accompanying conditionality.
Chapter
4
PROBLEMS
IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT & IN THE PROCESS AND SUBSTANCE OF IMF'S CONDITIONALITY
In
the absence of prevention measures, or even if such measures are in place,
crises will occur. Better management of financial crises is needed. The
present system of managing crises by the IMF has many asymmetries and
flaws.
(a)
Absence of debt resolution system puts debtor country at losing end
At
present, debtor countries are at losing end. They are not organised among
themselves, and are often caught in a crisis without enough time or sufficient
knowledge to think and plan properly. In contrast, creditors and creditor
countries are well organised among themselves, and they organise to obtain
maximum return for their loans.
At
present there does not exist a system where at the start of a crisis the
debtor country and the creditors get together within a framework to coordinate
their response in an orderly and fair manner. Instead there is usually
a stampede for the exit by creditors and investors. The debtor country
faces massive capital flight by foreigners and locals, especially in the
absence of controls on capital outflows.
What
is required is a comprehensive system of debt arbitration and workout.
This could include a declaration of debt standstill by the indebted country,
and its having recourse to an international debt review procedure (an
international extension of a bankruptcy court) presided over by an independent
international court or panel.
The
procedure would involve an orderly and fair debt workout, including writing
down of some loans, loan rescheduling, and provision of fresh loans to
finance recovery. The burden is shared fairly between debtor and creditor,
and among the different creditors, according to established criteria and
procedures.
"Bailing
in" of the private sector implies that creditors take a fair share
of the loss, and a rescheduling of some loans. This should be done without
transferring the responsibility of private sector loans to the public
sector through government guarantees, which has been a most unfair practice
that has been done in the past under IMF conditionality.
In
the absence of a standstill and orderly workout mechanism, debtor countries
are usually at the mercy of creditors and creditor countries. The burden
of adjustment and repayment falls most heavily on the debtor.
As
the IMF presides over this process, it is perceived as a debt collector,
operating in an unfair system. Such a role, and the public perception
of this role, undermines the Fund's ability to be seen as an honest broker
and thus as a creator of fair conditionality.
(b)
Flawed Process in IMF conditionality
In
relation to the IMF's loan conditionality and the ownership question,
there are a number of issues. First are the "process" issues.
Although letters of intent are signed by the recipient country's government,
it is well known that in most cases the conditions are in the main established
by the Fund and recipient countries do not have significant leeway or
space to successfully negotiate to remove or to really reshape most conditions.
Since
participation is so limited, and since in many cases the recipient does
not really agree with many of the conditions, it is difficult or impossible
to have genuine national ownership. And even in the cases where the national
authorities genuinely agree, various groups in the country may not, and
may oppose the policies.
(c
) Content and Quality of IMF Policies: Indicators and Types of Problems
Second
are the issues relating to the content and quality of the policies themselves.
There are acute problems regarding this, thus leading to a crisis of credibility
and legitimacy of the policies as well as of the process of conditionality.
There
are many indicators of policy failure. Countries that became indebted
in the more traditional mode (through trade and current account deficits
and through repayment problems in public sector loans) underwent conditionality
policies in the 1980s and 1990s. Many of them have not experienced economic
growth or social development or a successful exit from debt crisis.
UNDP's
Human Development Report data shows that only 15 countries experienced
relatively good per capita growth in the two decades up to the mid-1990s.
Most of these countries had not been in a debt crisis and thus did not
follow structural adjustment type policies. On the other hand, 89 developing
countries in the mid-1990s were worse off in per capita income than ten
years previously, and 70 of these countries had an income per capita level
in the mid-1990s lower than in the 1960s and 1970s.
The
decline in most of these countries was far deeper and longer than that
experienced in the 1930s Great Depression. And then some of the 15 countries
that had had the best performance also fell into crisis in 1997-8, with
the crisis caused by developments in their capital account. These countries
also fell into deep recession and it is widely believed that the IMF policies
for this type of crisis were inappropriate.
Indeed
it is believed that the IMF policy prescription for both kinds of countries
and crises were not counter-recessionary but excessively contractionary,
thus failing to generate growth that could have helped lead the countries
to recovery, but instead suppressing the potential for growth.
IMF
conditionality policies have come under severe criticism for at least
three reasons:
(i)
that there has been "over-reach" in that the conditions widened
in range through time to include "structural policies" not needed
for managing the crisis;
(ii)
that the policies in the core economic and financial areas of IMF competence
have also been inappropriate as they were contractionary and did not generate
growth; and
(iii)
that the policies were designed in ways insensitive to social impacts,
and the burden of adjustment fell heavily on the poor and at the expense
of social and public services.
These
three categories of problems are briefly discussed below.
(d)
Scope of conditionality too broad
The
scope of IMF policy conditions has been increasing through the years and
has become far too broad. Many of the conditions were not relevant or
critical to the causes or the management of the crisis the countries found
themselves in. Some of these conditions were put into the conditionality
package under the influence or pressure of major IMF shareholders for
their own interest or agenda, rather than in the interests of the debtor
country.
On
many areas where conditions are set, neither the IMF nor the World Bank
has the expertise to give proper advice, and thus the potential to commit
a blunder is high and the negative effects can also be high. This includes
the area of political conditionality and issues relating to "governance".
During
the Indonesia crisis, the IMF advice to the government to close 16 banks,
without first assuring the public that their deposits in the banking system
were safe, led to large deposit withdrawals and capital flight from the
country. This is now recognised as a blunder.
Even
in a major economic area of structural conditionality, i.e. that of trade
policy and reform, the potential of mistakes can be high. The IMF and
World Bank are well known for advising developing countries under their
charge to undergo rapid trade liberalisation.
The
appropriateness of the advice to undergo "big-bang" or rapid
liberalisation is now contentious.
In
many countries, import liberalisation has led to domestic firms and industries
having to close down as they were unable to compete with cheaper imports,
and de-industrialisation has been the result.
There
is now strong emerging evidence that trade liberalisation can successfully
work only under certain conditions. Factors for success or otherwise include
the ability of the country's enterprises and farms to withstand import
competition, its production and distribution capacity to export, as well
as the state of commodity prices and the degree of market access for its
products. In the absence of positive factors, import liberalisation may
cause the country into deeper problems.
The
implications for conditionality are significant. Evidence is emerging
that wrongly sequenced and improperly implemented trade liberalisation
is adding to developing countries' trade deficits. On average the trade
deficit of developing countries (excluding China) worsened by an average
of 3 percentage points of GNP between the 1970s to the 1990s.
The
IMF should thus review its trade liberalisation conditionality to take
account of the need to enable countries to tailor their trade policy to
their particular conditions and their development needs.
(e)
In areas of its core competence, there are also serious problems with
IMF policies
The
problems with conditionality do not lie only in "new areas"
outside the traditional areas of the IMF's concern. The criticism is now
widespread that even in the areas of the IMF's core competence (macroeconomic,
financial, monetary and fiscal policies), there are major problems of
appropriateness of policy and conditionality.
Policy
objectives and assumptions and policy instruments on how to obtain them
are under question, given the poor record of outcome. This questioning
of the appropriateness and outcomes of policy had already been going on
for several years (especially in relation to policies and results in Africa),
but the doubts and criticisms grew much more intense as a result of the
IMF handling of the Asian crisis.
The
IMF policies tend to be biased towards restrictive monetary policies (including
high interest rates) and fiscal contraction, both of which tend to induce
or increase recessionary pressures in the overall economy.
The
contraction in money supply and high interest rates decrease the inducement
for investment as well as consumption (thus reducing effective demand).
The high interest rates also increase the debt-servicing burden of local
enterprises and cause a deterioration in the banking system in relation
to non-performing loans.
The
Fund has also maintained the strong condition for financial liberalisation
and openness in the capital account. Thus, the country is subjected to
free inflows and outflows of funds, involving foreigners and locals. The
country's exchange rate is in most cases open to the influence of these
capital flows, to the level of interest rate, and to speculative activity.
Often, there are large fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Given
the fixed assumption that the capital account must remain open, there
is thus the need to maintain the confidence of the short-term foreign
investor and potential speculators. A policy of high interest rate and
lower government expenditure is advised (imposed) in an effort to maintain
foreign investor confidence. But since this policy causes financial difficulties
to local firms and banks, and increase recessionary pressures, the level
of confidence in the currency may also not be maintained.
The
narrow perspective on which the restrictive policies are based neglects
the need to build the domestic basis and conditions for recovery and for
future development, including the survival and recovery of local firms
and financial institutions, the encouragement of sufficient aggregate
effective demand , the retention of the confidence of local savers, consumers
and investors.
Most
IMF policies imposed on countries that face financial problems and economic
slowdown are opposite to the policies adopted by (and encouraged for)
developed countries, such as the US, which normally reduce interest rates
to as low a level as needed and which boost government expenditures, so
as to increase effective demand, counter recessionary pressures and spark
a recovery.
Thus
there have been criticisms by mainstream and renowned Western economists
(including Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz) that criticise the IMF for
imposing policies on developing countries that are opposite to what the
US does when facing a similar situation.
An
important policy option, i.e. the use of capital and exchange rate controls
(even if done selectively, in a limited way, and over a limited time period),
is not considered a legitimate instrument in the IMF range of policies
and is in fact prohibited in some letters of intent. This has been the
position until now, although recent statements have been made by the IMF
secretariat that indicate it is more willing to look at capital controls
as a possible option.
By
using capital and exchange rate controls, the country is better able to
de-link interest rates from exchange rates and capital outflows, and is
thus in a better position to reduce the interest rate without the unintended
effects of capital outflow and a weakening currency. It would thus be
in a much better situation to take recovery-oriented monetary and fiscal
policies, including of the type that the US adopts when facing recessionary
conditions.
The
Malaysian experience is instructive in this regard. During the Asian
crisis, Malaysia did not seek IMF crisis loan assistance. However it initially
undertook IMF-style policies for about a year, raising interest rates,
introducing restrictive monetary policies and sharply reduced government
expenditure, whilst also maintaining an open capital account and a floating
exchange rate system.
The
economy spun into deep recession, local corporations were faced serious
difficulties servicing their loans due to the jump in interest rates,
the banks' non-performing loans rose correspondingly, there was a credit
squeeze, and the currency and stock market plummeted.
In
September 1998, a new policy package was introduced, which included fixing
the currency's exchange rate to the US dollar, deinternationalising the
local currency (preventing its speculative trade abroad), selective capital
controls affecting the capital account in some ways, though the current
account remained open; the sharp reduction of interest rates, and expansionary
monetary and fiscal policies, as well as restructuring bad corporate and
banking loans.
The
domestic pro-recovery policies regarding interest rates, monetary and
fiscal policies could be carried out without the potential negative effect
on the exchange rate and on capital flight because of the prior introduction
of the selective capital controls and the fixed exchange rate mechanism.
The policy package seems to have worked well for Malaysia, as the economy
recovered and the financial position of banks and many local corporations
improved in 1999 and 2000.
The
Malaysian experience may or may not be suitable for other countries facing
a similar crisis, as an appropriate policy package would have to be one
that is tailored to the specific features of the country and the specific
problems it faces.
The
point being made here is that policies that would be considered "unorthodox"
by the IMF (and would in all probability not have been considered an option
by the IMF if suggested by a client country) can work. In other words,
there are alternatives to the IMF policy package and these alternatives
can be effective, and even more effective than the IMF's policies.
Since
the type of policies that are linked to IMF conditionality have been increasingly
criticised for not working, including because they are contractionary
and recessionary in nature and effect, it is no wonder that there is a
lack of credibility and confidence in the substance of IMF conditionality,
even in its core areas of competence.
There
is thus a need for IMF to review its macroeconomic package, re-look the
policy objectives and assumptions, compare the trade-offs in policy objectives
with the number and effects of policy instruments, and widen the range
of policy options and instruments.
This
review should be made in respect of government budget and expenditure,
money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, and the degree of capital
account openers and regulation, in the periods prior to crisis (to prevent
one) and during crisis (to manage it).
(f)
IMF policies badly designed from the social development perspective
The
IMF has also been heavily criticised, especially by civil society, for
the inappropriate design of their policies from the viewpoint of social
impact, including reducing access of the public to basic services, and
increasing the incidence of poverty.
The
adverse social impacts are caused by several policies and mechanisms.
The contractionary monetary and fiscal policies induce recessionary pressures,
corporate closures, lower or negative growth rates, retrenchments and
higher unemployment. Cutbacks in government expenditure lead to reduced
spending on education, health and other services.
The
switch in financing and provision of services from a grant basis to user-pay
basis impacts negatively on the poorer sections of society. The removal
or reduction of government subsidies jacks up the cost of living including
the cost of transport, food, and fuel.
These
and other policies have contributed to higher poverty, unemployment, income
loss and reduced access to essential goods and services. It is not a
coincidence that countries undergoing IMF conditionality have been affected
by demonstrations and riots (popularly called "IMF Riots").
The social impact of IMF policies is another major cause of the crisis
of credibility in IMF conditionality.
(g)
Brief conclusion
This
section describes the problems regarding the process and especially the
policy substance or content of IMF conditionality. It must be recognised
by the IMF that the major problem with its conditionality is that the
policies associated with it are seen to be inappropriate and harmful.
This
view is not confined to critical academics or NGOs but is now adopted
by renowned mainstream scholars, by parliamentarians of many countries
(including the US), and also by policymakers of the countries taking IMF
loans and undergoing IMF conditionality.
The
growth of the criticism is caused mainly by the poor record of the policies
adopted, and not so much by the lack of implementation of the policies.
Therefore,
the most urgent task is not so much to "sell" the old conditionality
better to the client governments or to the public, but to review the content
of conditionality itself and to come up with a better and more appropriate
framework and approach.
Chapter
5
PERCEPTIONS
OF INADEQUACY OF KNOWLEDGE AND OF DOUBLE STANDARDS IN FUND POLICY
Amongst
the factors that have affected the credibility of conditionality is the
perception that the Fund lacks adequate knowledge and understanding of
some critical issues on which it gives advice, and the perception of double
standards in policy. Regarding the lack of adequate knowledge, the chapter
prior to this has outlined some inappropriate policies in relation to
the domestic macroeconomy.
The
Fund has also shown inadequate understanding of the nature and workings
of international capital markets. This was shown during the Asian crisis,
which is now accepted as a crisis related to the opening of the capital
account by the affected countries.
Speculative
funds, including the hedge funds, played a major role in catalysing the
initial devaluation in Thailand. When called upon by ASEAN leaders to
study the role of hedge funds, the IMF initially denied that they had
any significant role. The IMF's then managing director maintained (in
December 1997) that the crisis in Asia was due to inadequate capital liberalisation
and that speculative funds and activities did not play any causative role.
It was only after the LTCM meltdown that the IMF took the role of hedge
funds (and their great leverage) seriously.
As
mentioned earlier, the present IMF managing director has admitted earlier
this year that IMF staff do not adequately understand the capital markets
and he urged them to get to know the markets better. This is a remarkable
admission, which is very much to be welcomed.
For
years the IMF secretariat had been advocating that developing countries
open their capital account, which would open them more directly to the
forces of international capital markets. Also, there were strong moves
to add capital account liberalisation to the mandate of the IMF through
an amendment to the articles of association.
This
advocacy that developing countries open themselves to the full force of
global capital markets, when the Fund itself had inadequate knowledge
of the capital markets, was surely remarkable, and in hindsight a great
mistake with so many adverse consequences.
With
the recent admission of lack of knowledge, let us hope the Fund is starting
a learning process that will lead to recognition of previous errors and
a more appropriate, cautious approach with a change in policy advice to
developing countries.
Regarding
double standards, the following are some examples. The IMF insisted as
part of the policy package that local firms and banks should not be bailed
out (on the ground of moral hazard) but there was a perception that foreign
creditors were being bailed out (thus the moral hazard argument did not
apply to them).
Governments
of developed countries often arrange rescue operations for institutions
and corporations facing financial crisis (e.g. the savings and loans crisis,
the LTCM crisis, both in the US); yet government intervention to rescue
important national firms was frowned on by IMF.
Developed
countries facing recessionary conditions typically make use of Keynesian-type
counter-recession measures; however the opposite measures were applied
to the affected Asian countries.
Moreover,
there is the perception that some demands included in conditionality were
placed there by major shareholders and reflected their interests and not
the interests of the affected country which had to accept such conditions
under duress. The element of double standard is also there: why is it
that major shareholders' narrow interests are accommodated rather than
the interests of the affected country?
These
questions affect the ownership of conditionality.
Chapter
6
SOME
GENERAL POINTS
In
examining the relation between ownership and conditionality, there can
be the following scenarios:
*
The conditionality policies are inappropriate and the country owns them
fully and implements effectively.
*
The policies are inappropriate and the country is reluctant to own them
and implementation is not so good.
*
The policies are appropriate but the country does not own them and does
not implement well.
*
The policies are good, the country owns them and implements fully.
In
the first case there is ownership but adverse results. In the second case
there is no ownership or reluctant ownership and the results are perhaps
not as adverse as in the first case. In the third case the problem is
not the policies but how to get them accepted. The fourth case is the
ideal.
It
should be recognised that there is also a major difference between "acceptance"
and "genuine ownership." In most official discussions, the "ownership"
problem refers to how to get the recipient country to accept and internalise
the policies (which are as usual made by the IMF and not the country)
so that there is a better implementation rate. In the context of such
discussions, a more accurate term would be "acceptance".
Genuine
ownership implies that the recipient country is allowed rights to participate
in policy formulation itself, so that the conditionality package is truly
"owned" by the country. The feeling of ownership comes with
the right and practice of participation in policy making.
It
should go without saying that appropriateness of conditionality policies
in terms of being in the interests of the debtor countries is the key
issue to be resolved. "Acceptance" of externally imposed conditionality
by the debtor countries is secondary and dependent on it. Moreover, the
right to participate in policy making, and thus genuine ownership, is
a critical element in ensuring appropriate conditionality and its implementation.
The
role of the Secretariat is important in whether the process, the policy
formulation and the outcome is successful. For that to happen, the Secretariat
must be seen to be impartial, working for the interests of the recipient
country, possessed with adequate knowledge of the international situation,
of the domestic situation and conditions, and the ability to help the
country come up with appropriate policies. If the Fund is to be perceived
to be playing this role, much has to be done to earn the credibility and
confidence.
The
role of the major shareholder countries is even more important. The public
perception is that they would like to make use of the Fund for their interests,
often at the expense of recipient countries and their people.
The
perception is that the major shareholders (who are also the home countries
of the major creditor and investor institutions) make use of their position
to skew the policy conditions in a manner that is biased in favour of
creditors and investors. Is there a conflict of interest in their making
use of the vulnerable state that debtor countries find themselves in,
as leverage for imposing policies that are in their own narrow interests,
even if these are against the interests of the debtor countries?
Finally,
it is difficult or even impossible to ensure that the interests of debtor
countries will be adequately reflected in conditionality and Fund decisions
when the voting rights in the Fund are so skewed towards the creditor
countries. Thus, the issue of the relationship between ownership and conditionality
has to face up to the issue of the ownership of the IMF itself.
When
decision-making rights are so imbalanced as they now are, it is not a
wonder that the developed countries are perceived to be controlling the
Fund's policies, and in a manner that reflects their own interests rather
than the interests of the whole membership. This situation is likely
to continue until there is a fairer balance in the decision-making system.
There
is a dire need for the modernisation and democratisation of the governance
system, including a revision of the quota and voting system. This can
be accompanied by genuine reform of IMF policies and priorities. The issue
of "ownership and conditionality" can then be better resolved
in that context.
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